U.S. recession looks likely — and there are 3 ways the economy could get hit, analyst says
By | Karen Gilchrist | www.cnbc.com
The odds of the U.S. economy falling into recession by next year are greater than 50%, Richard Kelly, head of global strategy at TD Securities, said Monday, outlining three possible ways it could get hit.
Rising gas prices combined with a hawkish Federal Reserve and a generally slowing economy are among the tripartite risks facing the world’s largest economy right now, according to Kelly.
Could that raise the possibility of a recession? “I don’t think it’s a potential,” he told CNBC’s “Street Signs Europe.”
“The odds of a recession in the next 18 months are greater than 50%,” Kelly added.
Exactly when that downturn might hit is harder to predict, however.
Kelly said the economy could slip into a technical recession — defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth — as soon as the end of the second quarter of 2022. Analysts will be closely watching the Bureau of Economic Analysis on July 28 for early estimates on that.
